Methodology

Adoption ramp model

During the transition period (10 Apr → 9 Aug 2026), not every in-scope container carries the Volta mark yet. We model adoption as a linear ramp: 0% on day 1, 100% from 10 Aug 2026. This is an assumption — the actual curve depends on producer re-labelling pace, which is not officially published.

Constants

Derived formulas

Note: the ticker projection is a pro-rata estimate based on these annual values with the adoption ramp applied. It is not real-time data.

Known limitations

The figures show revenue captured by the system. A net calculation — what is left after costs — would require data not publicly available. The model is honest about what it does not capture:

• System operating costs (RVMs, transport, sorting by Veolia/THC Bianna, the operator itself) are not modelled. They are paid out of the same pool these figures belong to.
• Fees paid by packagers to the operator are not modelled. They are the third funding source per the official FAQ — and unreclaimed deposits likely offset part of them.
• The Al/Fe split inside the 8,500 t/year bucket is an assumption (80/20). APA publishes the two materials as a single bucket.
• The actual adoption curve for Volta-marked packaging is not published. We model it as linear 0%→100%; producer re-labelling is likely non-linear in practice.
• Raw-material prices are estimates from public sources, referenced to 2025-2026; real market volatility is typically ±15%.
• Non-monetary frictions (time, travel, breakdowns, deposits lost on rejected containers, voucher vs cash, digital literacy) are also not captured in the €146M/year figure. Listed on the home page under "What these figures don't measure".

Frequently asked questions

Short answers to questions we see searched. Each answer is anchored in the constants above.

• Where does the unreclaimed deposit go?

  When the consumer does not return the container, the €0.10 deposit stays inside the system run by SDR Portugal. At full coverage and the current return rate (~40%), this is roughly €126 million per year in unreclaimed deposits. The revenue partly funds the operation (RVMs, transport, sorting) and offsets the fees that packagers would otherwise pay — with no public mechanism forcing redistribution back to the consumer.

• How much value flows through the DRS each year?

  At full coverage (from 10 August 2026), the system covers about 2.1 billion containers per year. At €0.10 deposit each, that totals €210 million/year in deposits alone. Add ~€25.5M/year in raw-material sales (PET, aluminium, steel) at a 40% return rate. Total outside reimbursements: ~€146M/year.

• Which containers are covered by the Volta system?

  Single-use bottles and cans, in PET (plastic), aluminium or steel, with volume up to 3 litres. Glass, dairy and specific categories are out of scope. From 10 August 2026, every in-scope container must carry the Volta mark.

• What happens if the machine rejects the container?

  Crushed containers, those with unreadable labels or in poor condition are rejected by the RVM. They then go to the yellow recycling bin — and the deposit the consumer paid is considered forfeited, with no recourse.

• What return rate is expected?

  Before the DRS, ~40% of containers were already collected via existing recycling bins (official SDR Portugal FAQ). The 2029 target is at least 90%. The projections on this portal use 40% as a conservative baseline scenario.

• Who pays for the RVMs and the system?

  The system is funded from three sources: unreclaimed consumer deposits, the sale of recovered raw material, and fees paid by packagers to SDR Portugal. The annual operating cost is not publicly disclosed — see the known limitations.

• Can the deposit be redeemed at any collection point?

  Yes — any RVM, manual collection point or Volta kiosk accepts containers carrying the Volta mark, regardless of where they were purchased. The refund is issued by default as a discount voucher; cash conversion or electronic transfer depends on the establishment.

• Does the revenue from raw-material sales go back to consumers?

  Not directly. The revenue from selling recovered PET, aluminium and steel stays inside the pool managed by SDR Portugal. No public mechanism forces this revenue to translate into a lower deposit or lower shelf prices.

Sources

• Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiroDiário da República, 2.ª série, N.º 10 · 2026-01-15 · accessed on 2026-05-07Fixes the DRS deposit value at €0.10 per container.
• FAQ oficial SDR PortugalSDR Portugal · accessed on 2026-05-07
• Manual do Ponto de Recolha (PdR) — SDR PortugalSDR Portugal · 2026-01-21 · accessed on 2026-05-07Sets the 72-hour limit on RVM downtime before manual collection becomes mandatory.
• Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo)ECO Sapo · 2023-04-13 · accessed on 2026-05-07Tonnages (35 kt PET, 8.5 kt metal, 2,123M units) reported by SDR Portugal itself and quoted in this article.
• LME Aluminium UBC Scrap (Argus benchmark)London Metal Exchange · accessed on 2026-05-07Monthly benchmark for April 2026: ≈$2,518/t, equivalent to ≈€2,290/t. Typical market volatility ±15%.
• ICIS — comentários ao mercado europeu de rPET (2025)Recycling Today / Packaging Europe · 2025-09 · accessed on 2026-05-07Public ICIS commentary on the European rPET market in 2025 (reduced volatility, stable prices). Estimate of €1,000/t for colourless flake adopted as the mid-range reference.
• Global scrap prices end 2025 — comentário Q4GMK Center · 2025-11 · accessed on 2026-05-07Commentary on the European scrap market at the end of 2025. Reference: HMS in Turkey, November 2025 ≈€325/t. Estimate of €300/t adopted as a conservative figure for the EU.