Methodology
Every number on this portal is traceable to a source. This page documents how each number is calculated and where it comes from.
Four sections: adoption ramp · constants · formulas · limitations.
Adoption ramp model
During the transition period (10 Apr → 9 Aug 2026), not every in-scope container carries the Volta mark yet. We model adoption as a linear ramp: 0% on day 1, 100% from 10 Aug 2026. This is an assumption — the actual curve depends on producer re-labelling pace, which is not officially published.
Constants
| Number | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
DRS launch Official launch of Portugal's DRS. | 10 April 2026 | FAQ oficial SDR Portugal |
End of transition period | 09 August 2026 | Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiro |
Full obligation (100% coverage) From this date, every in-scope container must carry the Volta mark and be part of the DRS. | 10 August 2026 | Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiro |
Deposit per container Deposit per container; not subject to VAT; SAF-T code M99. | €0.10 | Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiro |
Annual scope (units) Estimated annual units in scope (~2.1 billion); consistent with the 2,123M figure reported by SDR Portugal (via ECO Sapo). | 2,100,000,000 | FAQ oficial SDR Portugal; Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo) |
Pre-DRS collection rate (projection scenario) Approximate collection rate before the DRS (~40%) as stated in the official FAQ. Used as the baseline scenario for projections. | 40% | FAQ oficial SDR Portugal |
2026 collection target (minimum) | 40% | FAQ oficial SDR Portugal |
2026 collection target (maximum) | 70% | FAQ oficial SDR Portugal |
2029 collection target | 90% | FAQ oficial SDR Portugal |
Annual PET tonnage Estimated annual PET tonnage in scope of the DRS (~35,000 t/year), SDR Portugal estimate. | 35,000 t/yr | Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo) |
Annual metal tonnage (Al + Fe) Combined aluminium + steel bucket (~8,500 t/year), SDR Portugal estimate. The Al/Fe split is not published. | 8,500 t/yr | Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo) |
Al / Fe split inside the metal bucket (assumption) Assumption: the Al/Fe split inside the metal bucket is not published by SDR Portugal or APA. We adopt 80% Al / 20% Fe based on the dominance of aluminium beverage cans in the PT/EU market. | 80% Al / 20% Fe | Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo) |
rPET flake price (EUR/t) Estimate for colourless flake in the EU in 2025-2026, reference range €900-1,100/t. Typical market volatility ±15%. | €1,000/t | ICIS — comentários ao mercado europeu de rPET (2025) |
Aluminium UBC price (EUR/t) LME-Argus benchmark for April 2026: ≈$2,518/t, equivalent to ≈€2,290/t. Typical market volatility ±15%. | €2,300/t | LME Aluminium UBC Scrap (Argus benchmark) |
Steel scrap price (EUR/t) Conservative estimate for HMS scrap in the EU in 2025, reference range €280-350/t. For reference: ≈€325/t in Turkey, November 2025. | €300/t | Global scrap prices end 2025 — comentário Q4 |
Derived formulas
| Number | Formula | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Effective elapsed time (adoption ramp) | 0 before t₀; (Δt)² / (2·Δtransition) during transition; (Δtransition/2 + Δpost-transition) afterwards Δt = now − t₀; Δtransition = 122 days (10 Apr → 10 Aug 2026) | Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiro |
| Containers in scope since t₀ | annual_volume × effective_elapsed_time annual_volume = 2,100,000,000 units/year | FAQ oficial SDR Portugal; Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo) |
| Unreclaimed deposits | containers_in_scope × (1 − return_rate) × deposit deposit = €0.10; return_rate = 40% (pre-DRS baseline, SDR Portugal FAQ) | FAQ oficial SDR Portugal; Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiro |
| Value of recovered raw material | Σ (annual_tonnage × effective_elapsed_time × return_rate × price_per_tonne) PET €1,000/t · Al (80% of 8,500 t) €2,300/t · Fe (20%) €300/t | Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo); ICIS — comentários ao mercado europeu de rPET (2025); LME Aluminium UBC Scrap (Argus benchmark); Global scrap prices end 2025 — comentário Q4 |
| Total outside reimbursements | unreclaimed_deposits + raw_material_value sum of the previous two | Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo); Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiro |
| Value captured per unit | (annual_non_reimbursed_revenue) / annual_volume Full coverage, 40% return rate: ≈ €0.07 captured per container. Not to be read as a "sustainable deposit" — lowering the deposit would reduce forfeitures and require a dynamic equilibrium (sustainable deposit ≈ €0.06). | Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo); Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiro |
Note: the ticker projection is a pro-rata estimate based on these annual values with the adoption ramp applied. It is not real-time data.
Known limitations
The figures show revenue captured by the system. A net calculation — what is left after costs — would require data not publicly available. The model is honest about what it does not capture:
- System operating costs (RVMs, transport, sorting by Veolia/THC Bianna, the operator itself) are not modelled. They are paid out of the same pool these figures belong to.
- Fees paid by packagers to the operator are not modelled. They are the third funding source per the official FAQ — and unreclaimed deposits likely offset part of them.
- The Al/Fe split inside the 8,500 t/year bucket is an assumption (80/20). APA publishes the two materials as a single bucket.
- The actual adoption curve for Volta-marked packaging is not published. We model it as linear 0%→100%; producer re-labelling is likely non-linear in practice.
- Raw-material prices are estimates from public sources, referenced to 2025-2026; real market volatility is typically ±15%.
- Non-monetary frictions (time, travel, breakdowns, deposits lost on rejected containers, voucher vs cash, digital literacy) are also not captured in the €146M/year figure. Listed on the home page under "What these figures don't measure".
Sources
- Despacho n.º 432/2026, de 15 de janeiroDiário da República, 2.ª série, N.º 10 · 2026-01-15 · accessed on 2026-05-07Fixes the DRS deposit value at €0.10 per container.
- FAQ oficial SDR PortugalSDR Portugal · accessed on 2026-05-07
- Manual do Ponto de Recolha (PdR) — SDR PortugalSDR Portugal · 2026-01-21 · accessed on 2026-05-07Sets the 72-hour limit on RVM downtime before manual collection becomes mandatory.
- Estimativas de tonelagens SDR Portugal (citadas via ECO Sapo)ECO Sapo · 2023-04-13 · accessed on 2026-05-07Tonnages (35 kt PET, 8.5 kt metal, 2,123M units) reported by SDR Portugal itself and quoted in this article.
- LME Aluminium UBC Scrap (Argus benchmark)London Metal Exchange · accessed on 2026-05-07Monthly benchmark for April 2026: ≈$2,518/t, equivalent to ≈€2,290/t. Typical market volatility ±15%.
- ICIS — comentários ao mercado europeu de rPET (2025)Recycling Today / Packaging Europe · 2025-09 · accessed on 2026-05-07Public ICIS commentary on the European rPET market in 2025 (reduced volatility, stable prices). Estimate of €1,000/t for colourless flake adopted as the mid-range reference.
- Global scrap prices end 2025 — comentário Q4GMK Center · 2025-11 · accessed on 2026-05-07Commentary on the European scrap market at the end of 2025. Reference: HMS in Turkey, November 2025 ≈€325/t. Estimate of €300/t adopted as a conservative figure for the EU.